When Facebook implemented a flurry of platform changes that curtailed some viral marketing tactics in early December, developers scrambled to revive tactics and there was the thought that this might level the playing field a bit, taking some wind out of the sails of the most aggressive viral marketers.
To get some initial feel for the impact of these platform changes (and provide a benchmark for the industry), we looked at Daily Active Users (DAU), Monthly Active Users (MAU) and the resulting Sticky Factors (DAU/MAU) for top developers on December 7, 2009 (just prior to platform changes going into effect) and January 5, 2010. This assumes that the impact of the holidays (across the board dips around Christmas and New Year’s Day) was similar across all of these titles and also comes with the caveat that developer level numbers are not necessarily unique users (a user may play multiple games by that developer).
| Developer | MAU 12/7 | MAU 1/5 | % Diff | DAU 12/7 | DAU 12/5 | % Diff | Sticky 12/7 | Sticky 1/5 | % Diff |
| Zynga | 219.5 mil | 231.3 mil | 5.4% | 64.1 mil | 62.4 mil | -2.6% | 29% | 27% | -7.6% |
| Playfish | 59.5 mil | 55.8 mil | -6.2% | 11.7 mil | 9.5 mil | -19% | 20% | 17% | -13% |
| CrowdStar | 38.3 mil | 48.3 mil | 26.2% | 10.8 mil | 11.0 mil | 2.2% | 28% | 23% | -19% |
| Playdom | 22.7 mil | 20.8 mil | -8.3% | 3.2 mil | 3.3 mil | 1.6% | 14% | 16% | 10.7% |
| 6 waves | 38.7 mil | 33.9 mil | -13% | 7.8 mil | 6.7 mil | -15% | 20% | 20% | -2.4% |
| Slashkey | 18.4 mil | 16.3 mil | -12% | 5.1 mil | 3.7 mil | -28% | 28% | 23% | -18% |
| PopCap | 10.4 mil | 10.1 mil | -2.6% | 3.1 mil | 2.9 mil | -7.8% | 30% | 29% | -5.3% |
| TOTAL | 407.5 mil | 416.4 mil | 2.2% | 105.8 mil | 99.4 mil | -6.0% | 26% | 24% | -8.0% |
This initial cut makes it appear that some of the biggest developers (Zynga, CrowdStar and Playdom) have done reasonably well, but each of these developers actually launched a significant new game during the period. Because new games typically haven’t reached a steady state (which inflates the sticky factor) and because we’re more interested in the impact on games existing prior to the platform changes, let’s look at the numbers without Zynga’s PetVille, Playfish’s Poker Rivals, CrowdStar’s Happy Island and Playdom’s Tiki Farm:
| Developer | MAU 12/7 | MAU 1/5 | % Diff | DAU 12/7 | DAU 12/5 | % Diff | Sticky 12/7 | Sticky 1/5 | % Diff |
| Zynga | 218.5 mil | 212.4 mil | -2.8% | 64.1 mil | 58.4 mil | -8.9% | 29% | 27% | -6.3% |
| Playfish | 59.1 mil | 54.3 mil | -8.1% | 11.6 mil | 9.4 mil | -19% | 20% | 17% | -12% |
| CrowdStar | 38.3 mil | 42.0 mil | 9.6% | 10.8 mil | 9.2 mil | -14% | 28% | 22% | -22% |
| Playdom | 22.7 mil | 18.7 mil | -17% | 3.2 mil | 2.7 mil | -18% | 14% | 14% | -0.7% |
| 6 waves | 38.7 mil | 33.9 mil | -12% | 7.8 mil | 6.7 mil | -14% | 20% | 20% | -2.4% |
| Slashkey | 18.4 mil | 16.3 mil | -12% | 5.1 mil | 3.7 mil | -28% | 28% | 23% | -18% |
| PopCap | 10.4 mil | 10.1 mil | -2.6% | 3.1 mil | 2.9 mil | -7.8% | 30% | 29% | -5.3% |
| TOTAL | 406.2 mil | 387.7 mil | -4.6% | 105.7 mil | 92.8 mil | -12% | 26% | 24% | -8.0% |
The total line is not for all developers on the Facebook platform, just the seven aggregated above, so there is some bias in the aggregated numbers because Zynga makes up over half of the total MAU and DAU numbers. But given this caveat, the total line suggests that so far, these developers are seeing on average a 4.6% decline in MAU and a 12.2% decline DAU which has reduced the sticky factor by 8%. I believe MAU numbers will continue to decline a bit more before they stabilize a bit.
See the full breakdown of the winners and losers including commentary on each developer at InsideSocialGames.com